Levellers

Republicans are not going to have a good year in November–even if Hillary’s divisive tactics or the “Obama is a secret Muslim” crap helps McCain squeak out a narrow White House victory.  The “downticket” races for the U.S. Senate, the House of Representatives and state and local races look even bleaker for the GOP.  That’s not just my liberal wishful thinking. Karl Rove wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal last week that tried to brace his fellow Republicans for bad news.  Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA), architect of the ‘94 Republican Revolution, wrote a long letter to House leaders begging them to take emergency measures or risk being the minority party in the House for long years to come! These are not easily spooked men, folks.

Look at the tough road ahead for the GOP:

Democrats only have a 1 seat majority in the Senate (which is why Obstructionist Mitch McConnell (R-KY) can block almost everything good the Dems were elected in ‘06 to accomplish). So, optimist Republicans could say that they only need a net gain of 2 seats (or 1 if McCain wins and his VP breaks numerous ties as the President of the Senate), right? Unfortunately for the GOP, only a 3rd of the Senate is elected every 2 years and this year, thanks to previous Republican victories, they have to defend 21 seats while Dems have to defend only 12.  Of those 12 Democratic seats, only 2 are remotely competitive: LA’s Mary Landrieu who looked almost as bad during Katrina as Bush did and South Dakota’s  Tim Johnson because of his mild stroke in ‘06.  But even Republicans think Johnson’s seat is safe and Landrieu’s seat is looking safer all the time. 

Meanwhile several GOP senators retired, leaving their seats open (always easier for a pickup by the other side). And the GOP has had difficulty recruiting strong candidates for their races. Further, a death by one Wyoming Senator and Trent Lott’s unexpected resignation means that both Wyoming and Mississippi have TWO U.S. Senate seats up for contention in the Fall. Now, both are GOP strongholds, but just running senate races is expensive–Democratic challengers in WY and MS could force the GOP to spend money there that it needs elsewhere–and this is the one year in recent history where Dems have more $ available than the GOP!

There is a longshot (EVERYTHING would have to go right for the Dems and wrong for the GOP) chance that Democrats could actually win a net of 10 more seats in the Senate, thereby giving them a filibuster proof majority! More likely is 5 to 8 seats with a 3 seat minimum pickup (VA, NM, & CO). I think we have a great shot at VA (giving it 2 Dem. Senators for the first time in my memory!), NM, CO, NH (Good-bye John Sununu of Reagan infamy), MN, ME (if both NH and ME go, that will turn all of New England, once the most Republican part of the country–but a far different kind of Republican, into Democratic territory), OR, NC.  There is a chance that we pick up Lott’s former seat in Mississippi because it picks Wicker (R) against the very popular former governor Ronnie Musgrove (D). State Sen. Rick Noriega (D-TX), a Marine and Iraq War vet against the war is giving strong challenge to Bush crony John Cornyn (R) in Texas!  I WOULD have had high hopes this year for getting rid of McConnell (R-KY), whose approval rating is at record lows, but our best chance (State Auditor Crit Luallen) declined to run and our second best chance was hounded out of the race. I don’t think either of the two remaining Dem candidates (to be decided a week from tomorrow at the KY primaries) can do it, but I hope I am wrong.

More bad news: The House is expected to lose more seats to the Dems than the Senate!  In special elections to fill retirements (which have to repeat in Nov.), we are seeing GOP strongholds go down: First former Speaker Hastert’s seat in Illinois. Then, a district in Louisiana that the GOP has held for 30 years! Now, tomorrow may see a third GOP stronghold bite the dust in northern Mississippi! (Even if the GOP keeps this one, they were forced to spend $1.8 million and send VP Dick Cheney to campaign here–in a spot they could have taken for granted even last year.) UPDATE: Travers Childers (D-MS) won yesterday. So the Dems are 3 for 3 on flipping GOP House seats this year.   

Recent articles have shown what I have been saying for 2 years: White evangelicals are no longer a strict voting bloc for the GOP with the Religious Right in control. See also here. They aren’t automatically voting Democratic and many are registering as Independent, but if this strongest GOP voting bloc splinters in THIS year, it cannot be good news for the Republicans.  Bill Clinton captured 33% of white evangelical votes, while John Kerry only garnered 22%.  If that percentage is swinging back to the Dems, even in only some races, Republicans are in trouble.

And Catholics are the new ultimate swing vote.

And, while it may not help Obama (thanks to the “secret Muslim” crap and the controversy over Rev. Wright) in all Southern States, the New York Times notes that bi-racial alliances for Democrats are increasing in Dixie, especially at the local and state levels, but increasingly also at the national level.  Even though race is still a factor in U.S. politics (Duh!?) and will lead Obama to lose WV and KY to Clinton tomorrow(WV) and next Tues.(KY), the time of the “Southern Strategy” of racial politics seems to be drawing to a close.  As the U.S. becomes ever more racially and ethnically diverse, no political party will be able to win with ONLY white support.

Now, even if everything goes fantastic for the Dems in November and they take the White House and large majorities in both Houses of Congress, plus governorships, state legislatures, etc., this will NOT usher in the Rule of God.  In fact, it could lead to gross overconfidence and swaggering pride for the Democrats–as the GOP victories in ‘94 did for them.  Major losses by the Republicans in the Fall could lead them to a major stock-taking and reconsideration–not just of tactics, but of basic message.  Could we see a return of the Eisenhower/Rockefeller/Harold Stassen/Mark Hatfield/Gerald Ford style Republicans? I hope so. That would be good for the country.

The work for a more just and peaceful world goes on no matter what party is in power. Christians do not give ultimate allegiance to any Party or ideology, just to the Rule of God.  But electoral politics do matter:  politicians and parties can create the conditions in which it is easier or harder to work for justice and peace.  Weigh the issues carefully my friends and vote your consciences–then remember that we trust in God and not in mere mortals, whether the mortals we back win or lose.

Reprinted from Mainstream Baptists.

Baptists who work for shalom (peace grounded in justice) have several upcoming cool events/opportunities.

The annual summer gathering (which the kids and teens call “peace camp”) of the Baptist Peace Fellowship of North America will be 14-19 July 2008 on the campus of St. John Abbot College, Sainte-Anne-de-Bellvue, Quebec, Canada. (I think this is the last year that U.S. Americans can travel to Canada and return without passports.) This year’s conference theme is The Way That Leads to Peace and will focus on the connections between individual lifestyles and collective action for peacemaking. Monday night Keynote Address will be by Jim Loney, one of the members of Christian Peacemaker Teams who were kidnapped for 4 months by Iraqi insurgents in 2005-06. Mornings include music, morning prayer, Bible Study, and a variety of workshops. The BPFNA is the only peace group I know that includes a full program for children and youth and young adults every year. Many people schedule this week as their annual family vacation. Lawrence Martin (Wapistan), who is a member of the Cree First Nation, will lead the morning prayers. Bible Study will be led by famed Baptist ethicist (and my mentor), Dr. Glen H. Stassen, now Smedes Professor of Christian Ethics at Fuller Theological Seminary in Pasadena, CA. Glen will focus on the 10 Practices of Just Peacemaking. There will be afternoon workshops, too. By having a week long conference, the peace camps also build in time for naps, or playing tourist, etc., so that one doesn’t wear out with meetings–as sometimes happens when similar events take place in a weekend. The arts and creativity and music, etc. fill these annual gatherings. The evenings center around worship and preaching. This year’s preachers are Rev. Mary Hammond, co-pastor of Peace Community Church (American Baptist) in Oberlin, OH and Rev. Lee McKenna, a former BPFNA staff member and expert in global conflict transformation, of Toronto, ON. For more info. and/or to register, visit www.bpfna.org/conference or contact LeDayne McLeese Polaski at ledayne@bpfna.org or 704-521-6051. I don’t get to go to these every year and will, sadly, have to miss this one. But every time I get to go and bring my family, my faith is deepened, challenged, and renewed. It can be lonely to be a Baptist who cares about peace and justice, especially in the U.S. These gatherings make connections that are vital–and help us grow the next generation of peacemakers, too. If you have never been, I especially urge you to work diligently to attend this one. Non-Baptists are always welcome, too.

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One of the ways that the BPFNA has worked for peace over the years is to sponsor “Friendship Tours” between citizens in North America and other places of the world which currently or in the past have been in conflict, internally, or with North American governments. On 15-24 August 2008, there will be a BPFNA Friendship Tour to Nicaragua. For more information, contact, Deirdre Hinz at dhinz@unitedseminary.edu . I made 2 trips to Nicaragua during the ’80s with Witness for Peace during the time that the U.S. govt. sponsored and funded the terrorist Contras and fell in love with this beautiful and tragic nation.

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Since the U.S. government is still not fulfilling its obligations to the people of New Orleans, your congregation can help by partnering with a New Orleans congregation (especially in the 9th Ward) that is trying to rebuild–and help the neighborhood rebuild and the evacuated residents return. Churches Supporting Churches is not a strictly Baptist effort, but BPFNA signed on from the beginning. Look for ways for your congregation to become involved (and then write your Congressional leaders and demand they help, too!).

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The Fourth Global Baptist Peace Conference will be held in Rome, Italy 16-21 February 2009. It is co-sponsored by the Baptist Peace Fellowship of North America, the Alliance of Baptists, International Ministries of the American Baptist Churches, USA, Unione Cristiana Evangelica Battista Italia (The Baptist Union of Italy), and the Evangelical Baptist Church of Georgia. (That’s the Republic of Georgia, not the U.S. State of Georgia! I made the mistake of thinking that was obvious once. Sigh.) As many readers of this blog know, 2009 marks the 400th anniversary of the modern Baptist movement, dating from the time in 1609 that John Smyth’s exiled congregation of English Separatists in Holland, dissolved their congregation based on a covenant and, influenced by the Dutch Waterlander Mennonites who were their hosts, reconstituted their congregation based on Believers’ Baptism. (Of course, since Smyth and most of the congregation eventually merged with the Dutch Mennonites, some may want to say that the actual founding of Baptists dates from when Thomas Helwys and a handful of others broke with Smyth and returned to Britain to found the first Baptist congregation on English soil in Spitalfields, outside London, in 1611. But global Baptists seem to want to celebrate our history in ‘09 rather than waiting for ‘11 and who am I to argue?) This February Peace Conference in Rome will kick off the global celebrations of 400 years of Baptist history and look to the future of our Christian movement.

Like previous global Baptist peace conferences in Sweden (1988), Nicaragua (1992), and Australia (2000), this one will feature storytelling, training in nonviolence and conflict transformation/resolution, networking, and spiritual development for Baptist peace and justice activists around the world. There will be worship, speakers, workshops, etc. culminating in a massive public event in Rome to demonstrate global Baptist commitment to peace and justice. I have seen the list of Baptist leaders coming from around the world and will soon highlight them in a follow up post. If you cannot go, get your congregation to raise funds to send one or more from your church to this event. Then get them to bring back pictures and present to the congregation. Also, help raise funds for scholarships for people from poorer parts of the world to attend. Contact Paul Hayes at paulchayese@juno.com or Dan Buttry at dbuttry@comcast.net or Ken Sehested at ken@circleofmercy.org to help raise funds, plan events, or register yourself. We need to find ways to get global publicity for this event as a contrast to the ways that more well-known Baptist groups and individuals preach and act politically for oppression, destruction, militarism, etc. The world needs to see this face of the Baptist movement.